Alfa Financial Software Holdings – will this month’s Q4 Trading Update boost its shares, now 208p, brokers TP up to 323.4p

Mark Watson-Mitchell - 05.01.2026

On Thursday 29th January, Alfa Financial Software Holdings (LON:ALFA) will report its Q4 Trading Update to its shareholders.

We have already had indications that the message carried will be positive.

The market rates highly the value of the shares of the £618.4m-capitalised group, while investment professionals have the view that there is still more in store.

The shares, now 208p, are reviewed as Buys by two brokers, who have set Target Prices of over 300p following the recent Q3 Update.

The Business

Alfa has been delivering leading-edge technology to the global asset finance and leasing industry since 1990.

Trusted by leading brands to manage complex portfolios, drive efficiency and sustainability, and enhance the customer experience, its leading SaaS platform is at the heart of the world's largest and most progressive asset finance operations, supporting all types of automotive, equipment and wholesale finance.

The Group, which has offices in Europe, Australasia and North America, with full functionality for originations, servicing and collections, is live in 37 countries, representing an integrated point solution, a rapid off-the-shelf implementation, or an end-to-end platform for the complex global enterprise.

Alfa, which claims an impeccable track record, with its experience and performance unrivalled in the industry, believes that its customers stick with the Group for the long term, as it delivers value that lasts for decades.

The Q3 Trading Update

On Thursday 13th November the Group reported a strong third quarter with revenue up 12% to £31.7m, driven by 16% growth in subscription revenues and 26% in delivery revenues, while software engineering revenues decreased 30% as expected due to a strategic shift to investment.

The company's total contract value reached a record £222.0m.

Due to tight cost control and underspend on travel and IT, the Group guided that its full-year costs are now estimated to be £2.0m lower than previously forecast, thereby increasing its operating margin and profit expectations for the full-year accordingly.

Management Comment

Upon announcing the Q3 report, CEO Andrew Denton stated that:

"We are very pleased with our third quarter performance and I am delighted that we are able to increase our expectations for the full year.

Alongside delivering this strong financial performance we have also continued to invest in our product and our people to enhance our leading position in the market.

We remain confident in the strength of our pipeline and the future prospects for the business."

The Equity

There are some 300.12m shares in issue.

The larger holders include Liontrust Investment Partners (8.82%), BlackRock Investment Management (4.79%), Invesco Asset Management (4.30%), NFU Mutual Investment Services (3.62%), Aberdeen Investment Management (3.32%), Royal London Asset Management (1.84%), JP Morgan Asset Management (1.62%), Janus Henderson Investors (1.24%), Premier Fund Managers (1.11%) and Unicorn Asset Management (1.02%).

Broker’s Views

Analysts Carl Smith and Bob Liao, at Zeus Capital, rate the group’s shares as a Buy, with a recently Upgraded Target Price of 323.4p (306p).

They are estimating that the year to end-December 2025 will show revenues up from £109.9m to £124.9m, with pre-tax profits of £37.7m (£34.1m), lifting earnings to 9.4p (8.6p) per share.

For the 2026 year they see £135.8m sales, £39.1m profits, and 9.8p of earnings per share.

The 2027 year could show £144.9m in turnover, £41.7m in profits, and 10.5p earnings per share.

Over at Panmure Liberum, its analysts Harvey Robinson and Andrew Ripper also rate the group’s shares as a Buy, but with a slightly lower Target Price of 306p a share.

They see the group reporting sales of £125.0m in 2025, £137.0m in 2026, then £148.0m for 2027.

Their estimates for profits suggest £36.6m, £37.6m then £40.6m respectively.

Accordingly, earnings would come out at 9.2p for 2025, 9.4p for this year, then 10.2p per share next year.

My View

On the face of it the shares of Alfa Financial look to be on a fanciful rating – on just over a 22 times price-to-earnings level.

However, the Group’s growing Order Book and the strong repetition of its earnings gives some underwriting to the views that its shares are ready to run further upwards.

In the last year they have been up to 252p at their best, then down to 192.60p at their lowest – so the current 208p could well offer some useful upside, depending upon the Trading Update news due out at the end of this month.