Alumasc Group – with results tomorrow, despite challenging times 2025 sales and profits expected to be ahead, shares 335p, TP 410p

01.09.2025

Tomorrow morning, Tuesday 2nd September, the £121m-capitalised Alumasc Group (LON:ALU) will declare its 2025 results.

Way back at the start of February this year, I featured the group, with its shares then trading at 292.50p, on the basis that I was expecting it to be a steady performer for any portfolio.

Since then, the shares have peaked, hitting 395p in early June showing a 35% increase in price in just four months, before easing back on profit-taking to 335p.

Now I expect that a good piece of corporate news will get them moving back upwards again, offering a useful buying opportunity.

The Business

Based near Kettering in Northamptonshire, Alumasc is a sustainable building products, systems and solutions company.

Its operating segments include Water Management, Building Envelope and Housebuilding Products.

The group’s brands include Alumasc, Alumasc Rainwater, Alumasc Roofing, Alumasc Skyline, Blackdown, Gatic, Harmer, Roof-Pro, Timloc and Wade.

The Water Management side manufactures sustainable rainwater goods, drainage products and gas and airtight inspection covers, its products capture, retain and control the flow of rainwater inside and outside buildings from origination source to water course, sewer or ground.

The Building Envelope division supplies a wide range of roofing products, while also providing technical advice, service and environmental credentials.

The Housebuilding Products segment manufactures various products from recycled and recyclable materials.

In the year to end-June 2024 the group’s Water Management side accounted for £48.32m of total sales (47.98%), Building Envelope operations covered £37.60m sales (37.34%), while Housebuilding Products saw £14.81m turnover (14.71%).

The 2024-year, on a geographic sales basis, saw some 90.6% being made into the UK market, 5.3% into the Far East, 3.0% into Europe, with the Middle East, North America and the Rest of the World accounting for the balance 1.1%.

In the last year, about to be reported, that mix will have changed somewhat.

Trading Update

In the middle of July, the group issued a Trading Update for its year to end-June, indicating that despite challenging market conditions, it had continued the execution of its overall strategy.

It declared that revenue and profits were ahead of the prior year across all three of its divisions.

The group guided that it expected its revenue growth for the year will be some 12% better at around £113m (£101m), being underpinned by organic growth significantly ahead of UK construction markets.

It stated that, in line with market expectations, the group’s underlying profit before tax is expected to be around £14.2m (£13.0m), which is 9% above the prior year.

While UK revenues within the Water Management division were impacted by project delays, there was an offset by export sales growth, including faster-than-expected call-offs from a significant project at Chek Lap Kok airport in Hong Kong.

The Building Envelope and Housebuilding Products divisions continued their strong momentum, supported by new product introductions and outstanding customer service.

Management considered that the group has a strong platform to deliver further significant shareholder value when market conditions improve.

Management Comment

CEO Paul Hooper stated that:

"I am pleased to report another year of revenue and profit growth and a performance in line with market expectations.

This strong performance was achieved against a backdrop of challenging market conditions, with macroeconomic uncertainty affecting business and consumer confidence.

We have established plans to mitigate any continued short-term challenges, by continuing to focus on winning market share and entering adjacent markets, and by providing excellent customer service and new products.

We will also maintain our disciplined approach to capital allocation and our commitment to efficiency improvements.

As market conditions improve, we remain optimistic that our growth strategy and focus on higher-growth environmentally sustainable solutions will deliver significant shareholder value."

The Equity

There are some 36,133,558 shares in issue.

The larger holders include John McCall (11.24%), Philip Gwyn (7.57%), Hargreaves Lansdown (7.08%), Charley Stanley (5.05%), AXA Investment Managers (4.98%), Graham Hooper (2.93%), JP Morgan Asset Management (2.53%), Maitland Asset Management (2.46%), Chelverton Asset Management (1.52%), Castlefield Investment Partners (1.10%) and Evelyn Partners Investment Management Services (1.08%).

Analyst Opinion

David Buxton, Director of Research at Cavendish Capital Markets, has an undemanding 410p Target Price out for the group’s shares, compared with the current 332.27p.

His estimates for the year to end-June 2025, look for revenues of £113.0m (£100.7m) and adjusted pre-tax profits of £14.2m (£13.0m), generating 29.4p (26.6p) of earnings while easily covering a dividend of 11.0p (10.8p) per share.

For the current 2026 year, he sees £116.4m of group sales, with £15.3m of profits, earnings of 31.4p and a dividend of 11.3p per share.

In My View

This group’s shares enjoyed a useful 35% gain earlier this summer, before slipping back ahead of tomorrow’s results announcement.

Unless there are any trading setbacks issued with the results, I can now see them rising again to break above the 375p marker.