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  • Writer's pictureMark Watson-Mitchell

Aston Martin, Sanderson, Nightcap, Futura, Robinson and Windward

Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings (LON:AML) – now up 54% in six weeks

Next Tuesday there will be a Capital Markets Day at the iconic branded luxury car maker’s Head Office in Gaydon, Warwickshire – which is an already ‘sold out’ event.

Sector analysts and fund managers alike will be more than fascinated to have the ability to get the latest update on the group’s progress, subsequent to the £234m Geely Holding investment and stake purchase a month ago.

That pitched the shares at 335p through China’s leading independent automotive group purchase of 42m shares from the Yew Tree Consortium, while at the same time agreeing to purchase 28m new shares in Aston Martin at the same price.

The shares at that time were trading at 260p after news of the dealings, up from 230p the night before.

It has taken a little while for the market to absorb the impact of Geely becoming the third largest shareholder in the car maker, with some 17% of the equity, behind Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund with 19% and leaving Yew Tree still the biggest holder with 21%.

Geely has agreed to the condition to not increase its holding above 22% of the AML equity until after 1st August 2024.

Last year the group announced on 29th July, its Interim results for the half year to end June, so it is reasonable to expect a similar timing this year, especially after the recent action.

Next Tuesday’s Capital Markets Day could well be impactive.

The £2.4bn group’s shares closed last night at 330p, up another 8p yesterday and up over 54% in the last month or so.

Hold very tight.

(Profile 10.05.23 @ 213.5p set a Target Price of 265p*)

Sanderson Design Group (LON:SDG) – a stylish Buy

At yesterday’s AGM Dianne Thompson, Chairman of this luxury interior design and furnishings group, stated that:

"The Company continues to trade in line with Board expectations for the full year, and has a robust net cash position.

We have a strong portfolio of brands, an exciting pipeline of product and licensing opportunities and we continue to benefit from our business mix, which is currently being led by the strength of our licensing activities.”

Analyst Matthew McEachran at Singer Capital Markets rates the group’s shares as a Buy, looking for 210p a share in due course.

Noting that the first 20 weeks of the current year have seen trading in line with expectations, he states that the company is rated on a 40% discount to its peers.

Sales in the States remain positive, while European markets are beginning to show signs of improvement. The Middle East is also performing well, while the group’s licensing activities have continued to perform strongly.

The £92m group’s shares, which closed last night at 130p, are very much a stylish Buy.

(Profile 24.04.23 @ 135p set a Target Price of 168p)

Windward (LON:WNWD) – investors now becoming aware

Ahead of this maritime predictive intelligence group holding its AGM on 9th May I had Profiled the loss-making AI-based domain awareness company’s potential.

I really like this little company and consider it to have significant prospects as it develops still further its products and systems.

At the AGM former BP boss Lord Browne of Madingley, the group’s Chairman, stated that:

“Windward is now a recognised challenger to some of the more traditional data providers to the maritime industry, and we are confident that the Company's approach to the fusion of deep artificial intelligence capabilities with maritime expertise will continue to set Windward apart.

Looking to the rest of the year, I am confident the Company's continued momentum and focused growth strategy leaves it well-placed to capitalise on the growing demand for data driven insights in the maritime industry, and the Board remains confident in a successful year ahead."

I see the group’s shares aiming to climb back up to the 220p High reached in January last year, but it obviously will need both a lot of time and a host of positive company news to do so.

In the meantime, the group’s shares, which have been trading up to 50p in the last few days, are currently back to an appealing 46p.

Well worth buying a few and just tucking away.

(Profile 03.04.23 @ 37.5p set a Target Price of 47p*)

Nightcap (LON:NGHT) – looking for a 25% leap in sales to end June 2024

Analyst Matt Butlin at Allenby Capital has just pushed out an eight-page research note on this expanding cocktail bar group, following its latest £4.7m acquisition of 10 Dirty Martini’s.

Now with 47 bars and a Covent Garden restaurant, the company is still suffering from the train strikes, but I do not see that stopping Sarah Willingham from progressing her strategy to build the biggest bar group in the UK.

By this time next year Butlin expects another three bars to be added to the estate, while lifting sales up from an estimated £47.1m this year to £59.1m for the year to end June 2024.

As I said last week, such sales advance will inevitably improve the group’s centralised buying power, with better margins and then the profits will really drop to the bottom line.

The shares at the current 11p represent a very good medium-term punt upon the successful continuation of its estate build-up.

(Profile 14.11.22 @ 9.5p set a Target Price of 12p*)

Futura Medical (LON:FUM) – price really is firming up now

Since my first Profile on this sexual health and pain management pharmaceutical company, it has been a series of ups and downs, awaiting necessary approvals and the eventual marketing of its main products.

The first few months after the launch of its Eroxon product has proved successful, certainly enough for analysts Lala Gregorek and Philipa Gardner at Trinity Delta to now value the group at £270m, which would be some 94p per share.

The group’s shares have been up to 67p in the last few market days trading, before easing back to the current 63.5p valuing the group at £190m.

I still see these going up, now scaling its nine-year High region, with a lot further to rise.

They have put on nearly 54% since my end-May comment, then at 41.25p.

The shares are a very firm hold.

(Profile 14.03.19 @ 15p set no Target Price)

Robinson (LON:RBN) – CEO leaves a slower profit business

I note from yesterday’s AGM that Dr Helene Roberts is stepping down from her post as CEO of this leading provider of custom moulded plastic and rigid paperboard packaging group.

She joined the company in 2019 and I profiled the group a few days into the Covid-19 pandemic. At that time, I was particularly impressed by its profit potential and its undervalued rating.

I also got really switched on by the Chesterfield-based group’s spare property, which had development attractions.

That she has just gone before another CEO has been identified is interesting.

The group’s trading is not yet back to rational returns.

Analysts Mark Paddon and Michael Clifton at finnCap are still positive on the group, with a price objective on the shares of 125p against last night’s closing price of 96p, down 12p on the AGM news.

Their estimates for the current year to end December suggest sales increasing to £57.3m (£50.5m) with adjusted pre-tax profits of £1.3m (£1.5m), slashing earnings down to 8.0p (14.0p) but holding its dividend at 5.5p per share.

After recent disposals, the brokers have noted that the group’s remaining surplus property portfolio is worth some £7.4m, with more sales due within the next year.

That compares to the current market capitalisation of £16m.

Subsequent to my original Profile, the shares peaked at over 160p in November 2020, before weaker results pulled them back again to 77p by this time last year.

The shares are now trading on 6.8 times historic earnings but on a 12 times current year rating.

Despite the attractive 5.7% yield these shares are not for chasing until we have better corporate news and a new CEO.

(Profile 02.04.20 @ 55.5p set a Target Price of 80p*)

(Asterisks * denote that Target Prices have been achieved since Profile publication)


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