Bloomsbury Publishing – after yesterday's AGM Trading Update the question is – do you buy back into the group’s shares?

17.07.2025 

Yesterday the shares of one of my long-term favourite groups, Bloomsbury Publishing (LON:BMY) enjoyed a 6% rise to close some 30p better at 517p.

The shares recently fell to 480p – which was a five-year Low.

That improvement yesterday followed the £422m-capitalised company issuing a Trading Update ahead of its AGM.

It stated that the Board expects to deliver full year results to end-February 2026 to be ‘in line with consensus expectations’ – with the current consensus market looking for revenue of £335.9m and profit before taxation and highlighted items of £41.6m.

So, now I ask, is it the right time to get back into the group’s shares?

The Business

Established in 1986, today it has offices in London, Oxford, New York, Singapore, New Delhi and Sydney, the group is a leading independent publishing house, with authors who have won the Nobel, Pulitzer and Booker Prizes, and is the originating publisher and custodian of the Harry Potter series.

Amongst its ‘top selling’ authors in the UK and in the US is Sarah J Maas, whose ‘House of Flame and Shadow’ has recently been launched in paperback.

Next month sees the publication of J.K. Rowling's Pocket Potters series – which is sure to be another massive success.

After the recent fall back in the group’s performance, there is a corporate determination to continue to execute its ‘Bloomsbury 2030’ vision focused on its growth, portfolio and people.

While the group states that:

“The resilience of our business created through the portfolio of portfolios strategy underpins the confidence our Board has in the future.”

Broker Views

Analyst William Larwood, at Berenberg, has a Buy rating on the group’s shares.

His Target Price is a massive 825p.

Larwood reckons that:

“the shares trade close to a five-year historical low at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.7 times, which compares against a historical average of 17.5 times and fails to reflect the upside to estimates, particularly from the consumer division over the next couple of years.”

After the 2025 results were announced, analysts at Peel Hunt rated the group’s shares as a Buy.

"There were limited surprises from the results, following the March trading update.

The company benefits from its ‘portfolio of portfolios,’ and despite the prolonged softness in the academic publishing market, Consumer continued to deliver.

Upcoming catalysts such as Sarah J. Maas’s new book and the Harry Potter TV series could further drive Consumer performance, which we believe are not yet reflected in market expectations.”

Analyst Iain Daly, at h2Radnor, stated that:

“Bloomsbury’s AGM update can best be characterised as reassuring and follows on from the solid tone of the outlook statement at the FY25 final results in May.

FY26 market expectations have been confirmed and as a result we are making no changes to our FY26E and FY27E estimates. 

Within the update; two points stand out.

Firstly, the signing of Bloomsbury’s first AI content partnership.

The potential for such a deal had been flagged at the final results so it is good to see this crystallise.

We would expect further detail at the H1 results and we make no initial assumption around value.

The second point relates to Rowman & Littlefield and the initial tranche of BDR integration.

This is a key element of the R&L strategy, so again encouraging to see good progress here.

The reassuring tone of the update should shine a spotlight on the attractiveness of the Bloomsbury valuation, with a FY26E PER of 12.6x and a 3.3% dividend yield.”

He estimates that the current year revenue to end February 2026 will see a fall to £331.5m (£361.0m) but with adjusted pre-tax profits staying steady at £42.1m (£42.1m) but dropping earnings down to 38.5p (41.4p), while the ever-increasing dividend payments could continue to 16.2p (15.4p) per share.

For the 2027 year, he goes for £339.2m sales, £44.1m profits, 40.3p earnings and a 17.0p per share dividend.

My View

Having followed this company since it went public in 1994, I have always recognised its quality and the commitment of its Management in driving what is now a ‘global machine’ within the publishing sector.

In late October last year, the group’s shares hit 766p, they fell to 480p ten days ago, before closing at 517p last night.

This morning, they have risen again to 522.95p as I write.

The question though is whether I would be a buyer today?

My response to that would show a certain reluctance until further proof of its sales and profits recovery become evident.

Let us see just how well they fare between now and the group’s Interim Results announcement due on Thursday 23^rd October.

(Profile 28.02.19 @ 231p set a Target Price of 257p*)

(Profile 27.03.19 @ 238p set a Target Price of 270p*)

(Profile 17.03.23 @ 453p set a Target Price of 500p*)

Asterisks * denote that Target Prices have been achieved since profile publication.