Cake Box Holdings – UK’s largest retailer of fresh cream celebration cakes getting tastier, AGM due next week, shares going over 220p?
- Mark Watson-Mitchell
- 12 minutes ago
- 3 min read
Mark Watson-Mitchell - 28.08.2026
The shares of this £86m-capitalised franchise business are currently trading too cheaply, especially considering its expected growth.
At 10am next Wednesday, 2nd September, Cake Box Holdings (LON:CBOX) will be holding its AGM for approval of its 2026 Report & Accounts.
They certainly look to be a tasty purchase!
The Business
From a single concept store in 2008, Cake Box, which listed on AIM in 2018, has grown to a franchise estate of 300+ locations today.
The UK’s largest retailer of fresh cream celebration cakes is investing to further grow brand awareness, digital and e-commerce capabilities.
In 2025 for £22m it acquired Ambala Foods, a leading manufacturer and retailer of Asian sweets in the UK with more than 30 stores.
It is well-positioned to capitalise on trends in the sweet baked goods and celebration cakes segments – a total market expected to reach £3.2bn in 2027.
Strategies for Growth
Grow UK footprint: targeting 500 locations
New store openings, new locations, and the next generation of shop refits with a refreshed brand, and a target for 400 Cake Box and 100 Ambala locations.
Multi-channel sales model
Through digital channels, including delivery and the popular 'click-and-collect' feature, Cake Box is reaching more people, new demographics, and making it easier for customers to get what they want.
National and consumer data-driven marketing
Broadening its appeal and driving loyalty through a data-driven approach, with updated CRM system and new customer loyalty programme to grow customer database and enhance customer stickiness.
Focus on capable and efficient franchisees
Working with franchisees on expansion opportunities to increase the number of multi-site franchisees some of whom are looking at locations overseas.
2026 Final Results
On Tuesday, 30th June, the group reported a strong financial performance for the 52 weeks ended 29th March, with revenue increasing by 39.5% to £59.69m and underlying EBITDA growing by 41.6% to £12.36m.
This growth was driven by 37 new store openings, bringing the total to 310, and a maiden full-year contribution of £14.14m from Ambala.
The company also saw a 22.6% increase in underlying profit before tax to £8.67m and recommended a final dividend of 7.2p per share, a 5.9% increase.
Trading for the new financial year had started positively, with the group targeting 35 new stores.
Management Comment
CEO Sukh Chamdal stated that:
"We delivered a strong performance across the year, with healthy growth in revenue and underlying EBITDA and 37 new stores opened across the Group.
This reflects the disciplined execution of our growth strategy, including store expansion, positive like-for-like sales in our core Cake Box business, and sustained momentum across our multi-channel offering.
Customer engagement has been good throughout the year, supported by ongoing investment in digital capability and the strength of our franchise model.
As we indicated in our April trading update, we continue to keep a close watch on the wider macro-economic environment and consumer sentiment which is difficult to predict.
We have plans in place to mitigate any potential impact on the business, including managing our cost base and supply chain for efficiencies.
Despite these challenges, we are well positioned to deliver further growth in the year ahead.
Our healthy pipeline of new franchise locations, together with the effectiveness of our multi-channel sales strategy, gives us confidence in the fundamentals and resilience of our business to continue to grow."
The Equity
There are some 44m shares in issue.
Director holdings include Sukh Chamdal (CEO) 23.39%, Dr Jaswir Singh (COO) 1.49%, Martin Blair (Chmn) 0.07%, Michael Botha (CFO) 0.03%, Catherine Nunn (NExec) 0.01%, and Malar Velaigam (NExec) 0.01%.
The larger holders include Trigo Capital Argo Fund Hedge (10.73%), River Capital Mutual Funds (10.51%), Schroder & Co, London clients Retail (4.93%), Hosking Partners Fund (4.00%), and Hargreaves Lansdown private clients Retail (3.20%).
Broker’s View
Analyst Darren Shirley, at Shore Capital Markets, considered that the group has been performing very well, while its first year of ownership of Ambala was as expected.
For the year to end-March 2027, he estimates the group could see revenues rise to £67.8m (£60.0m), with adjusted pre-tax profits increasing to £10.0m (£8.7m), lifting earnings to 16.7p (14.7p) and paying out a dividend of 11.9p (10.8p) per share.
The 2028 year could see revenues of £75.2m, with £11.5m profit, 19.2p earnings and a 12.8p dividend.
“We continue to see so much to like in Cake Box’s capital light franchise growth model, a business that has worked through extensive growing pains and sustained UK consumer headwinds to deliver another strong year of growth on growth.”
My View
This company’s shares, which peaked at 220p at the end of October last year, are now trading at 192p, on a mere 11 times current year earnings, falling to 10 times prospective 2028.
That rating looks far too cheap to me, the shares are heading higher, back over the 220p level again and even higher.
(Profile 28.08.26 @ 192p set a Target Price of 225p)
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