GlobalData – decoding its own future, will this group succumb to current bid approaches, shares 189.50p, brokers pre-bid TP’s up to 304p

27.05.2025

It will be interesting to see what occurs within the next day for the £1.4bn-capitalised GlobalData (LON:DATA) following the recent announcement of two possible bid proposal approaches.

Especially interesting considering that the declared mission for the group is ‘to help our clients decode the future, make better decisions, and reach more customers’ – so will it help its investors to decide what they should be doing with their shares?

In accordance with the Takeover Code, ICG and KKR are each required, by not later than 5.00 pm tomorrow, 28th May, to either announce a firm intention to make an offer or announce that they do not intend to make an offer, however that deadline can be extended with the Takeover Panel consent.

The Business

GlobalData was formed in 2016, following the consolidation of several well-established data and analytics providers, with heritage leading back over 50 years.

Today the group declares that it is a truly unique research, consulting and events business, with unparalleled insight into the world’s largest industries.

It is a data, insight, and technology company that provides decision-makers across the world’s most successful companies with the intelligence to act with conviction.

Its connected platform uniquely integrates proprietary data, expert insight, and purpose-built AI into a unified operating system that powers the next generation of intelligence solutions.

Its 3,740 employees help to cover over 20 industry sectors, providing services to in excess of 4,900 clients, who typically subscribe for 12 months’ access.

The visible and recurring revenue base creates a resilient business model, with subscriptions making up approximately 80% of revenue.

The balance of its revenue is made up of ancillary services such as bespoke consulting, single copy reports and events, all of which harness our core assets.

Recently announced results for 2024

For the year to end-December 2024 the group reported revenues up 5% at £285.5m (£273.1m), while its pre-tax profits were 32% better at £54.9m (£41.5m), while lifting up its adjusted earnings per share by 10% to 7.5p (6.8p), but with a 46% lower dividend payment of 2.5p (4.6p) per share.

At the year-end its contracted forward revenue was 12% higher at £171.4m (£153.4m), while its net debt of £243.9m in 2023 was turned into a £10.1m net cash position by end-2024.

The group noted that it had signed new £340m debt financing facilities giving it significant firepower to execute its M&A strategy.

As CEO Mike Danson stated:

“2024 was transformational for GlobalData following Inflexion’s significant investment in June 2024, which strengthened our balance sheet and accelerated our growth strategy.”

Current Trading and Outlook

Commenting upon the group’s prospects it stated that its robust outlook was underpinned by high levels of revenue visibility, good execution of the ‘Growth Transformation Plan’ and a strong financial position that allows continued investment in strategic growth opportunities.

It noted that it had clear financial targets for FY25 and beyond, while it has a platform in place to accelerate organic and inorganic growth opportunities across its two customer-focused divisions.

The group is targeting annualised revenue of £500m by the end of 2026, through a combination of high single to double-digit organic revenue growth and M&A.

It declared that it is steadily progressing towards a 45% Adjusted EBITDA margin over the course of the Plan period and reinvesting into the Growth Transformation Plan.

Proposed move from AIM to Main Market

In February, the group announced its intention to apply for its ordinary shares to be admitted to the Equity Shares (commercial company) listing segment of the Official List and to trading on the main market for listed securities of the London Stock Exchange.

The group believes that Admission will further enhance its corporate profile and recognition, as well as extending the opportunity to own the company’s ordinary shares to a broader group of UK and global institutional shareholders.

Media Speculation

On Wednesday 30th April, the group noted recent media speculation and confirmed that it had received preliminary, conditional proposals from (i) ICG Europe Fund IX GP and (ii) Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. Partners regarding a possible cash offer for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of GlobalData, with an option for GlobalData shareholders to elect for an unlisted equity alternative.

The Board subsequently announced that it was in preliminary discussions with each of ICG and KKR.

Suspension of Share Buyback Programme

On Friday 2nd May, the group announced that, following its announcement under Rule 2.4 of the City Code on Takeover and Mergers on Wednesday 30th April, which put GlobalData into an ‘offer period’ for the purposes of the Code, the decision had been taken to suspend the ‘share buyback programme’ which was announced and commenced on Thursday 6th February.

The Equity  

There are some 829.70m shares in issue. 

The largest holder is CEO Michael Danson with 59% of the equity. 

Other larger holders include Liontrust Asset Management (6.52%), the GlobalData EBT (4.64%), BlackRock Investment Management (1.86%), Canaccord Genuity Asset Management (1.36%), Canaccord Genuity Wealth (1.32%), Threadneedle Asset Management (1.29%), Aberdeen Investment Management (1.09%), Rathbones Investment Management (1.06%), FIL Investment Advisors (1.06%) and Royal London Asset Management (1.06%). 

Analyst Views

Prior to the announcement of potential bid proposals, Singer Capital Markets, analysts James Musker and Harold Evans rated the group’s shares as a Buy, looking for 250p a share. 

Their estimates for the current year to end-December are for revenues of £340.8m (£285.5m), with adjusted pre-tax profits of £130.4m (£98.9m), lifting earnings to 9.8p (7.4p), while lowering the dividend again to just 1.86p (2.50p) per share. 

For 2026, they see £362.9m sales, £146.8m profits, 11.0p earnings and the 1.86p dividend. 

Similarly, over at Panmure Liberum, its analyst Johnathan Barrett reckoned that the group was well-positioned for growth. 

His Buy rating has a Target Price of 304p, with 2025 estimates for £340.0m sales, £121.4m profits, 8.4p earnings and 1.6p dividend per share. 

For next year, he looks for £360.0m sales with £137.5m profits, earnings of 9.6p and a 1.7p dividend. 

Even further ahead his 2027 estimate is for £380.0m revenues, £154.0m profits, 10.8p earnings and paying out a 1.9p per share dividend. 

In My View

The group’s shares, now at 189.50p, have almost gone into a ‘price limbo’ since the end of April, probably balanced off against ongoing buying interest from either of the potential bidders – or their friends.

I feel that if one of the two parties actually puts its head above the parapet with a bid then it could well be around the 230p to 250p price range.

However appealing this situation may appear, I have to stress that bids may not appear, which could knock the shares for six for a short while.