GlobalData – share buyback now underway offers upside opportunities, shares 117p, brokers 170p TP

Mark Watson-Mitchell - 27.11.2025

Following Monday’s Capital Markets Event, GlobalData (LON:DATA) has now launched its £10m share buyback programme.

At 117p, the £837m-capitalised data analytics consultancy group’s shares are looking inexpensive, especially as the business is preparing to detail, in January next year, its strategic moves to step up to the Main Market.

The company, which has seen its shares ease some 40% in 2025, ‘returned’ £60m to its shareholders in September, after having handled around £39.7m of share buy backs in the first half of its financial year.

Monday’s event saw Management cover recent developments in its platforms and declared it intentions to focus on investments made in artificial intelligence-enablement.

Recent Interim Trading Update

In late October the group reported that its FY25 revenue is expected to align with market expectations, with Q3 revenue growth reaching 13.5%.

That growth is declared as being supported by a rise in underlying subscription revenue growth to 2%, up from 1% in H1 2025, and contributions from recent acquisitions.

The group’s Contracted Forward Revenue also showed positive momentum, accelerating to 4% growth on an underlying basis as of September 30, 2025, compared to 3% in H1 2025.

However, the second-half Adjusted EBITDA margin is anticipated to be approximately 37% lower than previously expected, resulting in an Adjusted FY25 EBITDA margin of approximately 35%, with an FY25 Organic Margin of approximately 38%.

The company expects its margin to move back towards 40% in FY26.

Broker’s Views

Analyst Steve Liechti, at Deutsche Bank, has a Buy note out on the group’s shares, with a 170p Target Price.

The analyst stated that this week’s Capital Markets Day reiterated two positive messages from the group - the first in showing its confidence in the company’s revenue growth potential, by providing a return to better margins in full-year 2026 following 18 months of restructuring.

The second is that AI is offer the group a material positive given the ability to leverage its key proprietary datasets.

“While more recent trading has been disrupted given changes across the business, we see relatively defensive subscription-driven revenue and earnings and AI and data-led upside with an experienced management team at a modest valuation versus even recently derated business-to-business peers.”

Over at Singer Capital Markets, its analysts have a Buy out for the shares, with current year estimates for end-December to show revenues of £324.1m (£285.5m), with adjusted pre-tax profits of £104.2m (£96.1m), with earnings of 8.6p (7.8p) but paying just 1.86p (2.50p) per share in dividend.

For 2026, they see £345.1m revenues, £128.1m profits, 10.7p earnings and a maintained 1.86p per share dividend.

At Panmure Liberum, its analysts look for fairly similar current and prospective revenues, profits and earnings.

With their Buy note, they state that:

“We expect the stock to have wide appeal given its strong fundamentals when it moves to the Full List and becomes a FTSE250 constituent.”

In My View

The slower-than-expected integration of recent acquisitions dragged the whole group back in the last year, however, its global marketplace offers massive attractions.

Its roll of leading world groups as clients is impressive, which is just why such a Main Market move could prove really beneficial.

More institutional and professional investors will soon be following the group’s progress more closely.

It is passing through its growth inflexion point after a period of focused investment and strategic development, following several strategic acquisitions, which will inevitably bring about a re-rating of its shares from the current lower levels.

I now set a Target Price of 145p.