GlobalData – well now we know – KKR backed out of bid race leaving ICG still in talks – whispers suggest 230p/250p cash bid possible, shares now 180p, broker’s TP 304p

30.05.2025

It was just ten months ago that Inflexion, the private equity group, took out a 40% stake in GlobalData’s healthcare business – in a £451m transformative deal that switched it into a net cash position.

At that time Mike Danson, the boss of GlobalData(LON:DATA), stated that the deal would give DATA the ability to pursue its own growth so much more aggressively either by organic or inorganic means.

The group’s shares were then 218p, before peaking at 230p and subsequently falling back precipitously to 128p at its lowest in early April this year.

But that was prior to events progressing in the group’s corporate background, which have since helped to boost the share price by over 50% and there could well be a lot more still in store.

The Business

GlobalData was formed in 2016, following the consolidation of several well-established data and analytics providers, with heritage leading back over 50 years. 

The £1.4bn capitalised group is now a truly unique research, consulting and events business, with unparalleled insight into the world’s largest industries. 

It is a data, insight, and technology company that provides decision-makers across the world’s most successful companies with the intelligence to act with conviction.  

The company’s connected platform uniquely integrates proprietary data, expert insight, and purpose-built AI into a unified operating system that powers the next generation of intelligence solutions. 

Its 3,740 employees help to cover over 20 industry sectors, providing services to in excess of 4,900 clients, who typically subscribe for 12 months’ access. 

The visible and recurring revenue base creates a resilient business model, with subscriptions making up approximately 80% of revenue.  

The balance of its revenue is made up of ancillary services such as bespoke consulting, single copy reports and events, all of which harness our core assets. 

Recent Results

The group reported that revenues for the year to end-December 2024 were up 5% at £285.5m (£273.1m), whilst showing a 32% improvement in its pre-tax profits at £54.9m (£41.5m), boosting its adjusted earnings per share by 10% to 7.5p (6.8p), but with a 46% lower dividend payment of 2.5p (4.6p) per share. 

It also stated that it intended to move from AIM over to the Main Market.

Perhaps it was that note that perked up the ‘behind-the-scene’ moves.

Private Equity Bid Approaches

On Wednesday 30th April, the group noted recent media speculation and confirmed that it had received preliminary, conditional proposals from (i) ICG Europe Fund IX GP and (ii) Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. Partners regarding a possible cash offer for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of GlobalData, with an option for GlobalData shareholders to elect for an unlisted equity alternative. 

The Board subsequently announced that it was in preliminary discussions with each of ICG and KKR. 

The group’s shares leapt from 138p to 197p within two days.

This week the group put out a statement that KKR had backed away from making a bid, however it remains in talks with the other suitor, ICG Europe Fund IX SCSP.

Accordingly, it had extended the ‘talk times’ to June 11th, before ICG needs to define its intentions.

In reaction, to KKR dropping out, the group’s shares have fallen back to the current 180p.

In My View

The ‘City whispers’ suggest that, in order to win through, a cash bid for GlobalData would need to be in the 230p/250p price range – offering a gambling upside.