Greencore Group – upped Guidance shows market outperformance continues to underline attractions, shares now 260p with 300p early Target Price
Mark Watson-Mitchell – 13.10.2026
This morning’s announcement from the £2.1bn-capitalised Greencore Group (LON:GNC) was a Q4 Trading Update covering the foods group’s year to Friday 25th September.
It showed Greencore ended FY26 strongly, with volume growth ahead of the market, and an excellent profit momentum and positive cashflow generation, while it has further upgraded its FY26 Adjusted Operating Profit guidance.
The shares, which are now trading at 260p, have 300p written all over their early objective, while 350p looks feasible within the next year.
The Business
Greencore was established in 1991 following the privatisation of Irish Sugar.
In 2001, the business diversified into convenience food through the acquisition of Hazlewood Foods.
Subsequently, the business has made a series of acquisitions and disposals to create Greencore’s current portfolio.
In January 2026 Greencore completed the acquisition of Bakkavor Group plc.
Today Greencore is the UK's leading fresh convenience food manufacturer.
Headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, the combined entity generated approximately £4bn in pro forma revenue in FY25 and employs around 28,000 people.
It brings industry-leading innovation to create high-quality, fresh and convenient food for customers and consumers.
The Group supplies all major UK supermarkets, convenience and travel retail outlets, discounters, coffee shops, foodservice providers, and other retailers.
Its portfolio spans products across all meal occasions, including ‘Food for Now’ categories such as sandwiches, salads, sushi and ‘Food for Later’ categories such as ready meals, pizza, breads and desserts.
In addition, its US operations produce fresh meals, breads, dips soups, sauces and burritos out of manufacturing facilities in California, Texas and North Carolina.
Fourth Quarter Trading Update
This morning the Group has announced a strong finish to FY26, with Q4 pro forma revenue increasing by 4.5% to £1,036m and full-year pro forma revenue growing 3.6% to £3,378m, driven by volume growth ahead of the market and successful recovery of inflation.
The company is further upgrading its FY26 Adjusted Operating Profit guidance to approximately £248m, exceeding previous expectations.
Manufactured pro forma volume growth in Q4 accelerated to 2.1%, outperforming the wider grocery market, and FY26 volume growth was 1.1%, also ahead of the market.
Synergy delivery from the Bakkavor acquisition is progressing well, and Net Debt is expected to be around £600m at FY26, with a medium-term target of 1-1.5x Net Debt/Adjusted EBITDA.
The company is also progressing the sale of its US business.
Management Comment
CEO Dalton Philips stated that:
“Greencore has had a monumental year, and we finished it with a strong performance in Q4.
We grew volume ahead of the market, drove strong profit growth and we continue to make strides in our integration with Bakkavor.
That performance means we are in a position to further upgrade our full year guidance.
I’m really proud of how our teams have delivered for our customers, in what was a busy year with the acquisition and integration.
I would like to thank every Greencore colleague for the commitment and passion they bring each and every day.
We have real momentum in our business and Greencore has never been in a stronger place.
Customers want to do more with us and we are seeing encouraging progress from cross-selling categories across our expanded customer base.
Our focus in FY27 remains simple: producing high-quality, innovative fresh food, ensuring we deliver for our customers and progressing our ambitions for our larger business.”
The Equity
There are some 811.18m shares in issue.
The larger holders include Umbriel Ventures Ltd. (10.29%), LongRange Capital LLC (4.97%), JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Ltd. (2.99%), Brandes Investment Partners LP (2.80%), Dimensional Fund Advisors LP (1.88%), Polaris Capital Management LLC (1.78%), BNP Paribas SA (Private Banking) (1.73%), Alfred Berg Kapitalforvaltning AS (1.43%), Driehaus Capital Management LLC (1.36%), and Barclays Investment Solutions Ltd. (1.12%).
Broker Views
There are at least nine brokers following the group.
Prior to this morning’s Update, the analyst consensus suggested that the average Target Price is 325p, with the Lowest call at 265p, and the Highest being 360p.
Berenberg Bank had a Buy on the Group with a 351p Target Price.
Analysts Darren Shirley and Clive Black, at Shore Capital Markets, noted the Group’s very strong finish for profits and cash flow, outperforming the market and beating expectations.
The brokers see the potential for material capital appreciation over time.
Their estimates suggest that 2026 revenues will increase to £3,378m (£1,947m) with adjusted pre-tax profits of £187.0m (£105.1m), with 20.8p (17.7p) earnings and a dividend of 3.3p (2.6p) per share.
For the 2027 year they look for £4,132m revenue, £240.4m profit, 23.7p per share in earnings and a 4.5p dividend.
The 2028 estimate is for £4,287m sales, £281.1m profit, 27.1p earnings and dividend of 5.9p per share.
The estimate for 2029 looks for sales of £4,448m, £314.8m profits, 29.8p earnings and a 7.3p dividend.
Over the four years net debt is expected to ease from £754m in 2026 to £670m next year, then £529m in 2028, and just £364m in 2029.
My View
At the current 260p the shares trade on a mere 12.5 times current year earnings, just 10.9 times prospective, 9.6 times the 2028 estimates and just an 8.7 price-to-earnings ratio in 2029.
I am confident that the shares will see 300p very soon!
(Profile 30.01.25 @ 183p set a Target Price of 228p*)
(Profile 15.05.25 @ 201p set a Target Price of 235p*)
(Profile 18.11.25 @ 233p set a Target Price of 260p*)
(Profile 26.05.26 @ 241p set a Target Price of 306p*)
(Profile 07.10.26 @ 244p set a Target Price of 300p)
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