Greencore Group – Wonderful performance over the last year – shares have doubled in eight months, with more to come

As I said last week when AO World issued its latest Interim results – I really do like to see companies upgrading their market guidance.

It is especially noteworthy in the current economic environment which is generally voicing sluggish performances.

So yesterday’s results from my favourite food group – Greencore Group (LON:GNC) – pleased me no end.

The 52 weeks to 27th September

Yesterday’s finals were stronger than expected and portrayed a very positive outlook for the current year to end-September 2025.

Despite group revenues being down 5.6% at £1,807.1m (£1,913.7m), the group reported adjusted pre-tax profits up 34.6% at £74.7m (£55.5m), lifting earnings 36.6% at 12.7p (9.3p), helping to return the company to the dividend list with a 2.0p (nil) payment per share.

CEO Dalton Philips stated that:

"The Group delivered excellent progress against its key financial metrics and strategic priorities in FY24, underpinned by close customer engagement in a period that continued to be defined by cost inflation and muted consumer confidence.

I would like to thank all our Greencore colleagues whose continued dedication has enabled us to deliver these results.

Over the last 12 months we have remained focused on making high quality food, rebuilding our profitability, and positioning Greencore to be known as the UK's leading convenience foods manufacturer.

We continue to make progress against each of our strategic objectives and are well positioned to continue this momentum in FY25 and over the longer term., we have remained focused on making high-quality

The Group has maintained its strong financial discipline, with leverage reduced to 1.0x, while also returning a further £40m to shareholders and announcing an additional share buyback.

I am also delighted that today marks a return to Greencore paying dividends.

The strength of our balance sheet will provide us with the ability to invest in the growth and efficiency of our business and to pursue M&A opportunities on a selective basis, while also enabling us to deliver increasing returns to shareholders.

Looking ahead, we expect Adjusted Operating Profit for FY25 to be within the top half of the range of current market expectations and we'll share more detail on our medium-term growth strategy at our Capital Markets Day in February.”

Analysts View

Clive Black and Darren Shirley, at Shore Capital Markets, have read this one right for quite some time.

The analysts followed the company’s guidance by upgrading their current year estimates – now looking for the year to end September 2025 to show sales of £1,897.0m, with £84.5m profits, 13.9p of earnings and a 3.5p per share dividend.

Looking further forward to 2026 they estimate £1,943m revenues, £91.0m profits, 15.0p of earnings and the payment of a 4.3p per share dividend.

In My View

I was delighted to see the way that this group’s shares performed yesterday – leaping over 14% to 225p, up 27.80p on the day on the back of nearly tripled daily dealing volumes.

That saw them close at the highest level for nearly five years.

It was also double the price of the group’s shares when I profiled the company on Monday 25th March this year, then at just 112.90p.

That has proved to be a wonderful UK Investor performance by a very solid business operating in a very necessary business sector.

The group continues to be a real generator of value, with such a commanding position in its sector.

And there is more to come – of that, I am sure!