Gym Group – ahead of tomorrow's Trading Update this group’s shares look very fit at 159p, brokers TP 238p

Mark Watson-Mitchell - 12.01.2026

Tomorrow morning, Tuesday 13^th January, will see the issue by the Gym Group (LON:GYM) of its Trading Update for year to end-December 2025.

Its shares at 159p look ready for a strong uplift.

In a Leisure Sector Digest report published early last month by brokers Panmure Liberum its analyst Anna Barnfather stated that:

“We expect Gyms to continue to perform well in 2026, underpinned by rising participation rates and sustained membership growth.

Value-led operators should benefit disproportionately, both from volume growth and from continued pricing power as they narrow the gap with traditional full-service operators.

Digital and hybrid fitness models remain complementary rather than disruptive, enhancing member engagement rather than eroding physical attendance.”

The Business

The Gym Group is the original provider of high-quality, low-cost gym facilities in the UK, offering 24/7, flexible, no-contract gym memberships delivering great value-for-money for all its members.

Founded in 2007, it was a pioneer of the low-cost gym model and now operates some 250 high-quality sites across the UK.

Its focus is on operating gyms that have widespread appeal, breaking down barriers to fitness for all.

The group’s gyms have over 900,000 members making 65m visits per annum.

The low-cost gym segment continues to drive the growth of the UK health and fitness market, this group’s position as a leading operator means that it is well placed to take advantage of the long-term structural growth within the sector.

The Equity

There are some 175.83m shares in issue.

The larger holders include Liontrust Investment Partners (9.41%), RBC Global Asset Management (7.01%), Oxy Capital (5.04%), Invesco Asset Management (4.78%), FORUM Family Office Services (4.17%), Threadneedle Asset Management (3.76%), FIL Investment Advisors (3.72%), Gresham House Asset Management (3.56%), Axxion Luxembourg (3.32%) and Blackmoor Investment Partners (2.97%).

Broker’s Views

Some ten broking firms follow the group, with the consensus average expectation looking for revenues in 2025 of £244.1m, with adjusted pre-tax profits of £6.5m generating earnings of 3.7p per share.

For the current year now underway the consensus is for £266.0m revenues, £8.8m profits and 4.6p per share in earnings.

Analyst Anna Barnfather, at Panmure Liberum, now has a Target Price on her Buy rating, set at 210p.

From the group she is looking for sectoral growth, strong execution and its advantaged business model continuing to drive solid growth.

Barnfather also considers that there is a strong potential for earnings upgrades and a share buyback programme.

She notes that Gym Group delivered another strong trading performance in 1H25, with Group EBITDA (LNR) up 24% to £27.4m and FCF rising 8% to £15.1m.

The company’s ‘Next Chapter’ growth plan is driving membership gains, revenue growth, and margin expansion, with meaningful pricing headroom relative to the mid-market.

The analyst sees further upside as new initiatives in gym design and ongoing investment in data and technology build momentum, supported by its advantaged business model and secular growth in health and wellness.

This will sustain earnings momentum, further supported by savings on business rates.

She expects the business to have enjoyed strong membership growth during the important ‘back to routine’ September-October period and to be well placed ahead of the January-March ‘re-set/resolution’ membership surge.

Additionally, she expects the company to indicate an acceleration in its rollout from the current rate of 14-16 new gyms in FY25E and provide an update on capital allocation with potential for a share buyback.

For the last year to end-December, her estimates are for sales of £244.6m (£226.3m), with a leap in adjusted pre-tax profits to £5.3m (£3.6m).

For the 2026 year her estimates are for £265.8m sales and £9.4m profits.

Analyst Sahil Shan, at Singer Capital Markets, also rates the shares as a Buy, with an increased Target Price of 238p (205p).

Commenting upon the group’s Interim Results he stated that:

“Interims are strong, reflecting another period of execution against the strategic plan by the new team.

We identify three key points:

(1) EBITDA margins up 290bps to 22.6% with strong operational gearing;

(2) mature site performance and refurbishments driving improving ROCE; and

(3) trading momentum intact with growth broadened via Wellhub and a strong FY26 pipeline.”

Over at Peel Hunt, analyst Douglas Jack has fixed a Target Price of 225p on the group’s shares.

He considers that its shares should be rated as a ‘core leisure holding’ given the amount of growth to come.

My View

With earnings at a record level and the group enjoying a strong momentum, its shares look ready for a further lift-up in price, following a positive Trading Update tomorrow morning.

In the last year, they have been as low as 119p and peaked at 160.80p, so now at 159p they do offer investors attractive upside in price in 2026.

(Profile 11.04.19 @ 220p set a Target Price of 300p*)

(Profile 12.03.25 @ 138p set a

Target Price of 170p)