J D Wetherspoon – Up or Down, Tim is well worth following, Interims due this week, shares 643p, brokers average 741p TP

Mark Watson-Mitchell - 16.03.2026

At the end of this week, on Friday, 20^th March, Tim Martin will deliver to the market the Interim Results for his £677m-capitalised J D Wetherspoon (LON:JDW) pubs and hotels group.

It almost does not matter whether it will be good or bad news, of one thing you can be assured – it will certainly create a mass of column inches in the financial media.

As an example of Tim’s media attention, when commenting upon surging oil prices, he was quoted over the weekend as saying:

“Rising energy costs are bad news for pubs.

As well as direct increases for gas and electricity, they make customers poorer and also push up the costs for supplier.

Energy costs soon end up in the price of a pint or a meal in a pub, which is not what customers want to hear.”

But don’t let that put you off popping into Wetherspoons – the shares I mean!

What Do ‘The Dukes Of Hazzard’ and a teacher in New Zealand have in common?

And what is their connection to Tim Martin’s business?

Read on, unless you know already, and I will tell you later.

The Business

Having previously studied law at Nottingham University and qualified as a barrister, Tim Martin founded the company in 1979.

Based in Watford, this group is a pub company that has operations in the UK and Ireland, as well as having recently opened in mainland Spain, at Alicante Airport.

Wetherspoon is known for converting unusual spaces, like former banks and cinemas, into pubs.

It aims to provide customers with good-quality food and drinks, served by well-trained and friendly staff, at reasonable prices.

The company also operates the Lloyds No.1 bars sub-brand.

The FTSE250 company has over 40,000 employees and has won hundreds of awards.

Wetherspoon's 794 pubs generate almost all of the company's revenue, but the company also has a small hotel business operating 56 hotels in England, Ireland, Scotland, and Wales.

Latest Trading Update

On Wednesday, 21^st January, the group reported a 4.7% increase in like-for-like sales for the 25 weeks to Sunday, 18^th January.

It showed that bar sales were up 6.9% and that food sales improved just 1.3%, while hotel room sales saw a slight decrease of 0.7%.

The company anticipates full-year interest costs around £47m excluding IFRS 16, with debt levels projected between £740m and £760m by the end of FY26.

Wetherspoon has opened six new pubs year-to-date and plans for 15 openings in the current financial year, alongside eight franchised pubs opened and an expectation of 10-15 more.

Despite sales growth, increased costs for energy, wages, repairs, and business rates, totalling £45m in the first 25 weeks, are expected to result in profits for the first-half being lower than the previous year, and the full-year trading outcome is anticipated to be slightly below FY25 levels if current sales momentum continues.

In the year-to-date, the company has opened six pubs - at London Bridge station, Merchant Square in Paddington, Kenilworth, Basildon, Wetherby and Beaconsfield.

Six pubs have been sold in the year, giving rise to a net cash inflow of £3.3m.

The company currently has a managed trading estate of 794 pubs.

In addition, eight franchised pubs have opened in the year-to-date, bringing the total number to 16.

Management Comment

Chairman Tim Martin stated that:

"We are pleased with the sales growth in the financial year, and with the increased momentum in the second quarter.

Costs have been higher than anticipated, with energy, wages, repairs and business rates, for example, increasing by £45m in the first 25 weeks.

Profits in the first half are likely to be lower than the comparable period in the previous financial year.

If the current sales momentum continues, the company currently anticipates a full year trading outcome slightly below that achieved in FY25.

We will provide updates as we progress through the financial year."

The Equity

There are some 105.41m shares in issue.

Tim Martin holds over 30.38m shares, almost 29% of the equity.

The larger holders include Natixis Investment Managers International (8.18%), FIL Investment Advisors (5.91%), Ninety One UK (5.79%), Jupiter Asset Management (5.12%), Artemis Investment Management (5.08%), AzValor Asset Management (5.00%), Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Management (4.76%), Phoenix Asset Management Partners (4.09%), Phoenix Asset Management (UK) (3.34%) and Fidelity Management & Research (2.68%),

Broker Views

Some nine analysts follow the group closely.

The consensus average Target Price is 741p, the Lowest is 490p, while the Highest is for 875p.

Of the nine analysts, only two call the group’s shares as a Buy, one goes for Outperform, five rate them as a Hold, while the final analyst suggests that they are a Sell.

Jefferies has recently raised its Buy on JD Wetherspoon with an increased price target of 840p (825p).

Analyst Anna Barnfather, at Panmure Liberum, (TP 675p), recently stated that:

“We downgraded FY26E PBT by 5% to £78.9m post the January trading update when the company warned that labour and repair costs would be higher than expected.

However, since that time, the UK government has announced 15% business rate relief for pubs, which we estimate would be worth c£6.0m annually for JDW so see potential upside when it reports interims.”

Her estimates are for current year sales, to end-July, of £2,238m (£2,128m), pre-tax profits of £78.9m (£81.4m), with earnings of 53.2p (48.1p) and a 12.0p (12.0p) per share dividend.

For the 2027 year, she looks for £2,342m sales, £92.9m profits, 63.4p earnings and a maintained 12.0p dividend.

For 2028, she goes for £2,451m sales, £108.6m profits, generating 74.1p earnings and that 12.0p dividend.

In My View

Over the last year, the group’s shares have ranged from 814.50p to

Sir Tim Martin

518.50p.

It will be interesting to note the market’s reactions to this week’s Interims.

Despite the group having recently warned that fiscal 2026 profit could fall as it contends with mounting costs from energy bills, repairs, and property taxes, I still fancy its shares, now at 643p, especially as they have already fallen nearly 12% this year.

I now set a Target Price of 730p for the group's shares.

(Profile 16.03.26 @ 643p set a Target Price of 730p)

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So, what do ‘The Dukes Of Hazzard’ and a teacher in New Zealand have in common?

According to Wikipedia - the name of the business originates from JD Hogg, a character in ‘The Dukes of Hazzard ‘ TV series and Wetherspoon, the surname of one of Martin's teachers in New Zealand, who was known to not be able to control his classroom, similar to Martin's first pub, thus the name.