James Fisher - shares up 28% in one month, Finals due in three weeks, now 498p, new SQC Target Price 580p

James Fisher - submarine rescue

In just under three weeks, we will see James Fisher & Sons (LON:FSJ) announce its Final results for the year to end-December 2025.

I have followed this group for over thirty years, it has had its ups and downs in share price terms, but now I do feel that it is definitely on the up again.

Less than a month ago, on Thursday 29th January, I featured the group once more, noting that the group's Latest Trading Update was bullish enough to help to push its shares much higher than the then 388p.

As I write this piece, they now stand at 498p, after having peaked earlier today at 506.96p.

Now up 28% in the last month alone, I see its shares ready to ramp a lot higher on the back of good corporate news when the Finals are published.

The Business

James Fisher and Sons is a leading provider of unique marine solutions in Energy, Defence and Maritime Transport.

The group pioneers safe, innovative solutions that solve complex customer challenges for industries and governments around the world.

It is a global engineering services company that provides services such as engineering, inspection, installation, commissioning, operations, maintenance, lifting and handling to the oil and gas, marine, renewable energy, shipping, defence, nuclear, ports and terminals, transportation, and infrastructure industries.

An interesting point to note is that investing institutions own over 77% of the group's 50.4m shares in issue.

Latest Trading Update

The full-year Trading Update to end-December 2025, indicated that underlying operating profit is expected to be ahead of market expectations at approximately £28m, with an improved margin of around 7%, on revenue of approximately £395m, representing like-for-like growth of about 4%.

The company maintained its net debt to EBITDA within the target range of 1.0-1.5x, benefiting from supportive end markets, particularly in Defence, with recent contract wins enhancing FY26 visibility, and strong performance in Maritime Transport, despite some softness in oil and gas.

Management Comment

With the Trading Update, CEO Jean Vernet stated that:

"I am encouraged by our continued progress in 2025, where good second half delivery is anticipated to result in a full year underlying operating profit performance ahead of market expectations.

We have made further progress across our key strategic priorities, bringing us closer to our medium-term targets and enabling the businesses to focus increasingly on their long-term growth opportunities.

Throughout the year we followed our core principles of 'focus, simplify and deliver' resulting in a streamlined business portfolio, strengthened product base and international expansion.

Despite softness in oil and gas in the second half, overall market conditions remain largely supportive, and we have entered 2026 well positioned to deliver further progress."

Current Year Outlook

The group reported that its management remains confident in delivering further progress, which is once again expected to be seasonally weighted towards the second half.

Broker Views

Some six analysts follow the group and rate its shares as a Buy, the consensus average is for a 534p a share Target Price, the lowest at 466p, the highest at 615p.

The consensus looks for £418.5m revenues last year, with £25.5m profits, and 16.9p earnings per share.

For this year, they see £443.1m sales, £31.1m profits and 23.4p earnings per share.

At Singer Capital Markets, analysts Caroline de La Soujeole and Henry Carver, answer their own question - 'Why buy now?'

"The recent trading update showed strong momentum, driving consensus EBIT upgrades of c.17%.

We see scope for continued positive progress.

There is a credible path to mid-single digit organic growth, supported by stronger commercial execution, innovation and structural tailwinds.

We delve deeper in this note on the sustainability of top-line growth.

The 10% margin target (from 5.4% FY24a) looks achievable, with two divisions already there and Defence set to follow as improvements bed in, driving operational leverage on a growing revenue base.

Defence’s order book is up 45% YoY to £315m (end June), clear signs of growing commercial traction, underpinned by some exciting product launches."

Their estimates for the 2025 year are for some £395.9m (£437.7m) revenues, while adjusted pre-tax profits are £14.3m (£11.9m), lifting earnings to 19.5p (10.5p) per share.

For the year now underway, they go for £417.0m turnover, £17.6m profits and 24.0p earnings.

The 2027 year is pencilled in at £437.7m revenues, £21.7m profits and 29.7p earnings.

They have a 585p Target Price out on the group's shares.

My View

James Fisher & Sons is operating in the right sectors to see its Order Book expand significantly over the next few years.

Along the way, it will show the benefits of its recent 'transformation' dropping healthily to the bottom line.

Its shares at 498p have further to climb and canny investors will, no doubt, be bargain-hunting if the price falls back to much from these levels.

I now set a new Target Price at 580p.

(Profile 11.02.25 @ 345p set a Target Price of 410p*)

(Profile 24.02.26 @ 498p set a Target Price of 580p)