JD Wetherspoon – just how will its shares react to this Friday’s Finals?
Mark Watson-Mitchell - 30.09.2026
You have to admit it – that Tim Martin, boss of JD Wetherspoon (LON:JDW), is a ‘one-off’, always able to generate column inches upon any news from his pubs group, whether good or bad.
J D Wetherspoon is a leading pub operator in the UK and Ireland.
In late March after the group announced its Interim Results for the 26 weeks to 25th January – showing a 5.7% rise in revenues and a 31.9% fall in pre-tax profits, slashing earnings to 15.5p (21.5p) - the company’s shares were as low as 530.50p.
Just over two months ago, on Wednesday, 22nd July, he pushed out a Pre-close Trading Update stating that;
"Profits for the year are likely to be below market expectations, with marginally lower sales than anticipated in the final quarter, combined with higher costs in the areas of food, labour, repairs, energy and business rates."
The shares were then trading at 665p.
Just over a month later, on Wednesday 26th August, they were hitting 863p – their year’s High.
This coming Friday, 2nd October, the £852m-capitalised group will announce its 2026 Final Results – so where will the shares, now 809p, go upon the market reaction?
The Business
Back in 1979, in Muswell Hill, London, Tim Martin opened the very first Wetherspoon.
Capitalised at £854m, today the group owns and operates 793 managed pubs throughout the UK and Ireland.
The Headquarters in Watford, Hertfordshire, is known as the Wethercentre.
The Company aims to provide customers with good-quality food and drinks, served by well-trained and friendly staff, at reasonable prices.
The pubs are individually designed, and the Company looks to maintain them in excellent condition.
The Group is a member of the FTSE 250 Index.
Dates For Drinkers
Wetherspoon, which proudly works with over 250 brewers across the UK and Ireland, is holding a 12-day Beer Festival from Wednesday, 7th to Monday, 18th October, featuring up to 30 beers, all new to Wetherspoon, including 5 international brewers.
The Equity
There are some 105.48m shares in issue.
The larger holders include Natixis Investment Managers International SA (12.29%), AzValor Asset Management SGIIC SA (6.38%), Ninety One UK Ltd. (6.02%), Jupiter Asset Management Ltd. (5.32%), Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Management Ltd. (4.95%), Phoenix Asset Management Partners Ltd. (4.26%), Aberforth Partners LLP (3.09%), Fidelity Management & Research Co. LLC (2.78%), BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Ltd. (2.12%), and FIAM LLC (2.08%).
Broker’s View
In late July, analyst Anna Barnfather, at Panmure Liberum, rated the group’s shares as a Hold, with a 625p Target Price.
She was concerned that the company had issued its sixth consecutive downgrade to FY26 estimate forecasts, despite resilient sales momentum and a better year-end net debt outcome.
“The shares have underperformed the wider pub sector, but the valuation still does not adequately compensate for weaker earnings resilience, structurally lower margins and elevated leverage.
On our revised forecasts, Wetherspoon trades on CY26E EV/EBITDA of approximately 7.5x and a P/E of 15.1x, modestly above pub peer averages of 7.2x and 12.1x.
The better net debt outcome provides some support, but the investment case remains constrained by poor conversion of resilient sales into earnings and the risk that elevated repairs and other cost pressures prove structural.
We therefore retain our HOLD recommendation and 625p target price.”
Her estimates for the year to end-July were for sales of £2,215m (£2,128m), with pre-tax profits of £60.0m (£81.4m), easing earnings down to 41.1p (48.1p) but maintaining the 12p a share dividend.
For the 2027 year now underway, she estimates sales of £2,319m, profits of £74.2m, earnings of 52.3p and a maintained 12p dividend per share.
To end-July 2028, Barnfather looks for £2,426m sales, £89.2m profits, with 62.8p earnings and the 12p dividend.
It will be interesting to see her reactions to this Friday’s Finals Statement and whether its contents will bring about any changes in her views.
My View
The shares, now 809p, have performed impressively recently, especially given the downgrades.
But Tim Martin’s aura is pervasive within the equity marketplace – so the question is whether this week’s announcement will see some rapid profit-taking of the shares, now 809p, after the recent run-up?
Or will they go even better again?
(Profile 16.03.26 @ 643p set a Target Price of 730p*)
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