Luceco – 2026 Adjusted Operating Profit expected to be ahead of market expectations, Q3 Trading Update next Tuesday, shares at 203p look very cheap!

Mark Watson-Mitchell – 23.10.2026

Next Tuesday, 27th October, I will be looking out for the Q3 Trading Update from the electrification products group Luceco (LON:LUCE).

The statement should indicate that the market’s current 2026 expectations will be beaten.

The £300m-capitalised Group’s shares are looking slightly friendless at 203p, after having hit 292p earlier in the Summer.

A good announcement next week could help to turn the downward pressure on the shares, with a move to swiftly trade the 220p/240p price range.

The Business

Based at Telford in Shropshire, Luceco is a leading designer and manufacturer of residential and commercial electrification products and systems.

The Group designs and manufactures its market-leading range of wiring accessories, EV chargers, LED lighting, and portable power products at its state-of-the-art manufacturing facilities, distributing them through professional, wholesale and retail channels.

It has three main segments to its business – Wiring Accessories, LED Lighting and Portable Power.

Wiring Accessories - accounting for 48% of group revenues include: Switches and sockets; Circuit protection; Outdoor wiring devices; Junction boxes; Cable management; and Commercial power and accessories.

LED Lighting - 29% of group revenues include: Residential and commercial; Interior and exterior; Mains and solar; and Work & site lighting.

Portable Power - 23% of group revenues include: EV chargers; Home Energy Management Systems; Extension leads; Cable reels; Adapters and accessories.

The Group’s sales are derived from four main channels:

Retail - 27%, Distributors serving consumers only, including DIY sheds, pure play online retailers and grocers;

Hybrid - 20%, Distributors serving a mixture of consumers and professionals, typically with multi-channel service options;

Professional wholesale - 24%, Distributors serving professionals only, largely via a branch network; and

Professional projects - 29%, Sales agreed by Luceco direct with professionals, but fulfilled via Professional Wholesale.

At the half-way stage, in late September, the Group reported strong first-half 2026 results, with revenue increasing by 13.4% to £142.6m, driven significantly by a 119.5% surge in its Energy Transition segment.

Adjusted operating profit rose by 14.5% to £15.8m, and the Company now expects full-year adjusted operating profit to exceed market expectations.

The interim dividend has been increased by 16.7% to 2.1p per share, reflecting confidence in the Group's momentum.

The Company also noted a fall in its Bank Net Debt to EBITDA leverage ratio to 1.5x.

Management Comment

Recently appointed CEO Dr Thorsten Müller stated that:

“I joined Luceco because I saw an excellent platform for future growth.

We have a strong portfolio of businesses and products, capable and entrepreneurial people, well-established routes to market, supported by a well-invested, highly agile manufacturing base and supply chain.

I am very pleased to see that the Luceco team has continued to deliver strong results during the period, with operating profit growth of circa 15%, building on the momentum achieved in 2025.

Energy Transition growth is at the heart of these results, with first half revenue increasing from £2m in 2022 to £18m in 2026.

We are seeing growth from both our core, heritage business and the fast-paced Energy Transition activity, and as a result we are now confident in delivering a full-year performance ahead of our previous expectations.”

The Equity

There are some 160.8m shares in issue.

The larger holders include EPIC Private Equity Ltd. (21.01%); John Hornby (former CEO) (15.25%), Apex Financial Services (Trust Co.) Ltd. (8.46%), Giles Brand (Chairman) (5.59%), BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Ltd. (4.99%), Montanaro Asset Management Ltd. (2.97%), Chelverton Asset Management Ltd. (1.74%), Dimensional Fund Advisors LP (0.69%), River Global Investors LLP (0.64%), AXA Investment Managers (0.44%), Downing LLP (0.35%) and PEH Wertpapier AG (Germany) (0.29%).

Broker Views

The company-compiled analyst consensus is for full-year revenue of £310.7m, with a range of £304.0m to £314.6m and Adjusted Operating Profit of £40.9m, with a range of £40.5m to £41.0m; and for 2027 - £42.3m, with a range of £41.7m - £42.9m.

Analysts at Berenberg Bank rate the Group’s shares as a Buy, with a 300p Target Price.

Deutsche Bank says Buy, with a 270p TP.

Jefferies have a Buy, with a 320p a share TP.

Peel Hunt say Buy, looking for a 300p TP.

Analysts Adam Forsyth and Anna Shevkunova, at Longspur Research, have the 254p estimate.

They forecast the current year to end-December at £300.6m (£242.5m) in sales, with pre-tax profits of £33.0m (£24.9m), generating earnings of 16.2p (12.5p) and a dividend of 6.0p (5.0p) per share.

For 2027, they see £341.3m sales, £40.4m profits, 19.8p earnings and a 7.0p dividend.

The 2028 estimates are for £346.5m sales, £41.2m profits, 20.2p earnings and a dividend of 7.5p per share.

My View

This Group has shown an excellent record of growth over the last few years, and I expect that to be followed on over this year and next.

It shares, now at just 203p, look very cheap.

(Profile 15.06.20 @ 96.1p set a Target Price of 125p*)

(Profile 11.08.25 @ 126.80p set a Target Price of 150p*)

(Profile 17.09.26 @ 220p set a Target Price of 275p)

(Profile 23.10.26 @ 201p set a Target Price of 275p)

5p)