Sabre Insurance Group – looking good ahead of next week’s Interims, shares now 150.80p, broker’s TP is 200p

22.07.2025

Later next week, on Thursday 31^st July, Sabre Insurance Group (LON:SBRE), the Dorking, Surrey-based group, will be declaring its Interim Results for the six months to end-June – I am hopeful that the announcement will be positive enough to continue the recent upwards run in the group’s shares.

The Business

The company provides private car and motorbike insurance through a broad network of insurance brokers with car insurance also being sold directly through its ‘Go Girl’ and ‘Insure 2 Drive’ brands.

It declares that it has a diversified book of business and broad underwriting footprint with a bias towards the higher average premium segment.

The £377m-capitalised business is looking to maintain its focus on the UK private motor insurance market whilst diversifying into other vehicle underwriting opportunities.

Its aim is to continue to provide brokers and direct customers with quotes across the entire risk spectrum and ensure the group continues to deliver market-leading underwriting performances, together with controlled and attractive growth over the long term.

The Equity

There are some 228.91m shares in issue.

The larger holders include Aberforth Partners (8.22%), Link Fund Solutions (7.14%), Gresham House Asset Management (7.13%), Quilter Investors (5.15%), Janus Henderson Investors (5.07%), BlackRock Investment Management (5.02%), Ninety One UK (5.00%), AXA Investment Managers (4.92%), Wellington Management (4.79%), and M&G Investment Management (4.75%).

Broker’s Views

There are some eight analysts following the company, four of whom rate the shares as a Buy, three suggest that they could Outperform, while the last one has a Hold on the equity.

The average consensus view indicates a Target Price of 181p, the lowest is for 145p, while the highest is for 200p.

Analyst Carl Lofthagen, at Berenberg, last week stated that he is increasingly optimistic about the group’s potential given improving markets.

He reiterated his Buy rating on the stock, with a 200p Target Price.

The analyst noted that the company’s shares have risen 22% since its May AGM.

“Although we expect a continuation in 2025 of the soft top-line trend developments seen since third quarter 2024, we are increasingly optimistic about Sabre’s long-term potential due to improving market conditions and the roll-out of the group’s new IT platform in late second half 2025 or early 2026.”

Very bullish in his comments, Lofthagen is expecting Sabre to materially outperform consensus expectations in full-year 2026 and full-year 2027.

Another broker with a 200p a share Target Price is Panmure Liberum, its analysts Abid Hussain and Barrie Cornes are estimating that the group’s management has a track record in calling the inflection points helping it to navigate the cycle, which builds confidence in their ability to execute against their 2030 ambitions.

They look for a current fall in pre-tax profits to £44.7m (£48.6m), with earnings of 13.7p (14.5p) whilst paying out a 12.6p (13.0p) per share dividend.

However, for the 2026 year they see £46.5m profits, 14.3p earnings and a 13.0p dividend.

In the 2027 year, the analysts go for £51.4m profits, earnings of 15.8p and the payment of a dividend of 14.0p per share.

They conclude that:

“Sabre has managed previous underwriting cycles successfully, maintaining positive earnings throughout the period of elevated claims inflation.

This has positioned management to now write business at target margins and navigate the next part of the cycle.

However, the share price continues to trade as if margins will remain weak, or earnings will not materialise.

The new focus on optimising earnings and grow through the underwriting cycle will help re-rate the stock as management executes against the plan.”

This time last year the group’s shares were on their way up to 167p, before gradually easing back to 118.60p by early April this year.

The group’s end-May AGM Trading Update helped to turn the share price from 123p to the current 150.80p, moving in a strong upward curve.

The Interim results due out next week should help them to move upwards again and then, hopefully, climb back above that 167p level and clearly penetrating my 170p Target Price in the process.

(Profile 10.01.2025 @ 134p set a Target Price of 170p)