SigmaRoc – could next week’s Interim Trading Update indicate that shares, at 123p, are undervalued?

Mark Watson-Mitchell - 16.07.2026

Next Wednesday, 22^nd July, will see the SigmaRoc (LON:SRC) minerals group issue a Trading Update covering the first half of its current trading year.

I believe that, despite various headwinds within the European construction sector, the group will make a decent showing, indicating confidence for the 2026 year.

The shares, now 123p, have been up to 153p this year and could so easily be moving back up there again very soon.

The Business

SigmaRoc is a quoted lime and limestone group targeting quarried materials assets in the UK and Northern Europe.Lime and limestone are key resources in the transition to a more sustainable economy.

New applications for lime and limestone products as part of a drive for sustainability include the production and recycling of lithium batteries, the decarbonisation of construction including through substitution of cementitious material and new building materials, and environmental applications including lake liming, air pollution and direct air capture.

The group seeks to create value by purchasing assets in fragmented materials markets and extracting efficiencies through active management and by forming the assets into larger groups.

It looks to de- risk its investments through the selection of projects with strong asset backing.

The business is asset-backed with over 2.7bn tonnes of mineral reserves.

AGM Trading Update

On Thursday, 30^th April, the group reported a solid start to 2026, with first-quarter revenue remaining flat year-on-year at £251.5m despite a 3% volume decrease due to adverse weather conditions.

Underlying EBITDA increased by 12% to £54.9m, with margins improving by 250 basis points to 21.8%, driven by cost management and logistics internalisation.

Operating profits rose 4% year-on-year.

The company's outlook for 2026 remains unchanged, with expectations of improved trading as weather disruptions ease and potential benefits from increased European steel production and German stimulus spending.

The group also highlighted its resilience to energy price volatility and diversified end markets, including opportunities in agriculture and coal-fired power generation.

Management Comment

CEO Max Vermorken stated that:

"Our Q1 2026 financial performance evolved as we had hoped, with profitability in line with budget and ahead of last year.

Modest volume growth absent weather disruption signals that the business is well placed to take advantage of a European recovery.

Steel volumes were encouraging, as were the early signs of a housing recovery in our core markets.

Severe weather disruptions overshadowed these trends somewhat but could not hide the generally improved sentiment and market backdrop in the first quarter.

Presently we keep monitoring two key developments and their impact.

Firstly, the conflict in the Middle East and its potential impact on end demand, although our diversified end markets provide resilience against shocks, which the business has previously demonstrated.

Secondly, we are awaiting the impact of German stimulus materialising in the latter part of this year.

These head and tail winds are challenging to assess or predict.

We remain, however, optimistic about the year and the prospects of the SigmaRoc Group both for 2026 and beyond."

Outlook

The group stated that through March it had seen trading improve as weather disruptions eased. 

There were signs of increased levels of European steel production resulting from the recent changes to EU tariffs and quotas reducing the level of imports.

It continues to assess the impact of German stimulus spending, which is likely to materialise from H2 2026 onwards.

The uncertainties related to the situation in the Middle East are being monitored, and the group’s Management will take appropriate actions if trading is impacted.

However, it already has a number of strategies in place that naturally mitigate the effects of any energy price volatility which includes hedging, pass-through mechanisms and the ability to switch fuel sources.

SigmaRoc also benefits from highly diversified end-markets with potential opportunities coming from areas such as increased lime use in agriculture, due to higher fertiliser costs, and additional demand for lime resulting from increasing use of coal-fired power stations.

The group remains confident in its ability to make further progress in the current year and beyond. 

The Equity

There are some 1,114.85m shares in issue.

The larger holders include FMR (10.05%), Capital Research Global Investors (8.04%), Invesco (3.98%), BlackRock (3.71%), Driehaus Capital (3.25%), Janus Henderson Investors (3.18%), Columbia Threadneedle Investors (3.10%), Conversant Opportunities (2.95%), Polar Capital (2.86%), BGF Investment (2.60%) and Wellington Management (2.51%).

Brokers Views

Some ten firms closely follow the group, the current year consensus suggests revenues of £1,066m, with EBITDA of £276.0m and earnings of 11.5p per share.

For 2027, they estimate £1,117m sales, £291.0m EBITDA and 12.6p per share in earnings.

Analysts Adrian Kearsey and Kate Middleton, at Panmure Liberum, rate the shares as a Buy, with a healthy 216p Target Price.

Ahead of next week’s Trading Update, the brokers have estimates out for the year to end-December, to show sales of £1,089m (£1,036m), while pre-tax profits could rise to £172.4m (£157.1m), generating earnings of 11.2p (10.7p) per share.

For the 2027 year, they see £1,141m sales, £189.8m profits and 12.4p per share in earnings.

Berenberg Bank have Hold out on the stock, with a 130p TP.

Deutsche rate the shares as a Buy, looking for 150p. 

My View

In the last year or so this group’s shares have ranged in price from 105p to 153p, now at just 123p, I believe them to be totally undervalued.

In my view, an early price objective has to be around 150p.

(Profile 04.09.20 @ 49p set a Target Price of 65p*)

(Profile 26.07.23 @ 62.20p set a Target Price of 80p*)

(Profile 24.07.25 @ 113p set a Target Price of 140p*)