Ebiquity – next Tuesday’s 2024 results statement should mark the turnaround for this media analysis group, shares now 23p, brokers TP 78p

16.04.2025

Next Tuesday morning, 22nd April, Ebiquity (LON:EBQ), the group which helps brand owners increase returns from their media investments, will be reporting its Final Results for the year to end-December 2024, which are expected to show just over a 40% fall in profits.

But don’t let that bother you, because strong recovery moves are afoot under a revitalised Management Team.

The Business

This £33m-capitalised group is a world leader in media investment analysis.

With ‘feet on the ground’ in the world’s 18 largest media markets, this company combines unmatched local know-how and established, centralised best practices to offer analysis and insights that advertisers cannot find anywhere else.

It harnesses the power of data to provide independent, fact-based advice, enabling brand owners to perfect media investment decisions and improve business outcomes. 

Ebiquity is able to provide independent, unbiased advice and solutions to brands because we have no commercial interest in any part of the media supply chain.

The group is a data-driven solutions company helping brand owners drive efficiency and effectiveness from their media spend, eliminating wastage and creating value.

It provides analysis and solutions through four Service Lines: Media management, Media performance, Marketing effectiveness and Contract Compliance.

The company’s clients are served by more than 575 media specialists, covering 80% of the global advertising market.

The business has the most comprehensive, independent view of today's global media market, analysing over $100bn of media spend and contract value from over 123 countries annually, including trillions of digital media impressions.

As a result, over 75 of the world's top 100 advertisers today choose Ebiquity as their trusted independent media advisor.

Trading Update

On Monday, 17th February, the group announced a Trading Update, for the year to end-December 2024, stating that its results for that year are anticipated to be in line with market expectations.

In December 2024, better than the market consensus expectations, the company announced that its strong cash inflows during Q4 reduced Net Debt to slightly below the level reported as at 30th June 2024.

Management Comment

CEO Ruben Schreurs stated that:

"Although 2024 has been a testing year for Ebiquity and for many in this sector, it is gratifying that the results for the year are anticipated to be in line with market expectations.

The Group's cash collections in the final months have been strong and, since taking on the role of CEO in late November, I have made some key internal appointments to my Executive Leadership Team ("ELT").

Together with the ELT I believe we have set the Group up for success in 2025 and beyond, starting with the very earliest months of the current financial year. I am delighted to welcome Cavendish as the Company's new Nominated Adviser and Sole Broker.

Their early coverage of Ebiquity's investment case confirms that they will be the ideal partner for the growth mission ahead."

Cavendish Capital Markets analyst Andrew Renton stated that:

“the new CEO, Ruben Schreurs, has an extraordinary track record of identifying industry trends, innovating scalable digital products, and delivering profitable growth. He founded Digital Decisions, acquired by Ebiquity in 2020, and grew operating profits manyfold over several years.”

The Equity

There are some 140.82m shares in issue, of which 3.63m shares are held in an Employee Benefit Trust.

Larger holders include Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management (14.72%), BGF Investments (13.57%), FIL Investment International (9.83%), Artemis Investment Management (7.92%), Ruben Schreurs, CEO (6.83%), Cosimo Capital (6.26%), Slater Investments (5.02%), Chelverton Asset Management (4.66%) and Franklin Templeton Investments (3.96%).

Broker’s Views

Analyst Andrew Renton, Director of Research at Cavendish Capital Markets, has a 78p Target Price out on the group’s shares.

His estimates for 2024 are for £77.5m (£80.2m) revenues, with adjusted pre-tax profits having decreased to £5.6m (£9.7m), with earnings of 2.8p (5.3p) per share.

However, for this year he sees a bounce-back in revenues to £80.4m, with profits of £7.1m and 3.5p per share of earnings.

Comparing the group against its peers, the analyst considers that its shares look remarkably undervalued and a prime candidate to more than double shareholder value over the next year.

My View

This is an incredibly useful business for national advertisers globally, its revitalised team in charge will show their worth, while the group’s shares could rise substantially from the current 23p.

Ebiquity - retail media analysis

I now set an easy Target Price for the group’s shares at 28.5p.

(Profile 05.11.19 @ 43p set a Target Price of 75p*)

(Profile 03.02.21 @ 20.5p set a Target Price of 27p*)

(Profile 16.04.25 @ 23p set a Target Price of 28.5p)

Asterisks * denote that Target Prices have been achieved since Profile publication.