MJ Gleeson – building growth in tricky markets, this group is transforming itself, Interims next week, shares 386p, TP 620p

Mark Watson-Mitchell - 06.02.2026

The shares of the £225m-capitalised MJ Gleeson (LON:GLE) put on a 10p gain yesterday to close at 394p, today they have slipped back to 386p.

At the start of last December, they were trading at 381p, by the end of that month they had improved to 435p.

Over the last five weeks, they have ranged from 430p down to 377p, before edging up again this week.

Next Wednesday, 11^th February, will see the housebuilding and construction group announce its Interim Results.

Ahead of the statement, I consider that the group’s shares offer some attractive upside.

The Business

The Sheffield-based company operates through two segments: Gleeson Homes and Gleeson Land.

The Gleeson Homes segment builds affordable homes in the North of England and Midlands.

The Gleeson Land segment operates across the South of England and the Midlands, is the Company’s land promotion division.

The division identifies sustainable development opportunities which it then promotes through the residential planning system and sells on behalf of the landowner.

First Half Trading Update

On Friday, 16^th January, the group issued it Trading Update for the six months to end-December 2025.

It stated that it expects that the group’s full-year results will be in line with market expectations.

It reported a robust performance for the half-year, with 848 homes sold, a 6% increase year-on-year.

Net reservation rates improved to 0.75 per site per week, while the forward order book stood at 978 plots.

Gleeson Land saw strong demand for prime consented sites, submitting 15 planning applications in the period.

The group ended the period with net debt of some £22.5m.

Management Comment

CEO Graham Prothero stated that:

"We are pleased to have delivered a solid performance in a subdued market.

We now expect to see an improvement in new home sales through the Spring selling season on the back of last month's rate cut, and as uncertainty in the run-up to the Budget continues to subside.

Meanwhile, we are working hard on operational efficiency and effectiveness to ensure Gleeson Homes is in the best shape possible to capitalise on the significant growth opportunities we see ahead.

Along with increasing momentum at Gleeson Land, we are confident that the Group is in a strong position to deliver on its strategic objectives."

The Equity

There are some 58.42m shares in issue, with institutional investors holding nearly 82% of the equity.

The larger holders include Harwood Capital (10.27%), Aberforth Partners (9.24%), FIL Investment Advisors (8.16%), Schroder Investment Management (6.45%), Rathbones Investment Management (5.72%), BlackRock Investment Management (5.64%), Sanford DeLand Asset Management (4.96%), Artemis Investment Management (4.26%), Royal London Asset Management (3.70%) and Highclere International Investors (3.10%).

Broker’s Views

There are some seven brokers following the group, six of whom call the shares out as a Buy, the seventh as an Underperform.

The consensus average Target Price is 524p, with the Lowest aiming at 400p and the Highest going for 620p.

Analyst Greg Poulton, at Singer Capital Markets, rates the group’s shares as a Buy, aiming at the top figure of 620p.

His estimates for the current year to end-June are for £418.3m (£365.8m) revenues, with adjusted pre-tax profits of £24.5m (£21.9m), lifting earnings to 31.5p (28.9p) but paying out a maintained dividend of 11.0p per share.

For the end-June 2027 year, he sees sales up to £474.6m, with £32.6m profits, 41.3p earnings and a 13.0p per share dividend.

Leaping into the 2028 year, Poulton suggests sales of £536.8m, £40.4m profits, 50.8p earnings and giving a 16.0p dividend.

“Gleeson trades at a discount to sector peers on a CY26 P/B rating of 0.7x (sector: 0.8x) or 11.4x P/E (sector: 12.2x).

We believe it is well placed to deliver above-market earnings growth across the forecast period.

Against this, we see the current price as an attractive entry point.”

Over at Cavendish Capital Markets, analyst Max Hayes also sees the shares as a Buy, but with a slightly lower Target Price of 606p.

His 2026 estimate is for £415.8m sales, £24.3m profits, 31.2p earnings and 11.0p per share dividend.

For the next year, he goes for £462.0m revenues, £31.7m profits, 40.6p in earnings and 13.5p of dividend.

Into 2028 Hayes looks for £513.5m in turnover, £38.1m profits, earnings of 48.9p and a 16.3p per share dividend.

He states that:

“With affordability a key sector constraint, there is an opportunity for Gleeson to build a premium given its strategic positioning in the more affordable homes market.”

In My View

Ahead of next Wednesday’s Interim Statement, I reckon that at the current 386p there is an opportunity to buy into a significant upside potential covering the next few years.

I now set a Target Price of 460p.

(Profile 06.02.26 @ 386p set a Target Price of 460p)