SigmaRoc – Q1 ahead of estimates, AGM Update looks positive, shares 122p, broker TP’s range 158p to 216p

Mark Watson-Mitchell
Apr 30
3 min read

Mark Watson-Mitchell – 30.04.2026

This morning’s Q1 Trading Update from the £1.36bn-capitalised SigmaRoc (LON:SRC), the leading European lime and minerals group, issued ahead of this afternoon’s AGM, indicates that the group is showing profits ahead of expectations.

It is worth noting that lime and limestone are key resources in the transition to a more sustainable economy.

New applications for lime and limestone products as part of a drive for sustainability include the production and recycling of lithium batteries, the decarbonisation of construction, including through substitution of cementitious material, and environmental applications, including lake liming, air pollution and direct air capture.

SigmaRoc benefits from highly diversified end markets with potential opportunities coming from areas such as increased lime use in agriculture, due to higher fertiliser costs, and additional demand for lime resulting from increasing use of coal-fired power stations.

AGM Trading Update

SigmaRoc reported a solid start to 2026, with first-quarter revenue remaining flat year-on-year at £251.5m despite a 3% volume decrease due to adverse weather conditions.

Underlying EBITDA increased by 12% to £54.9m, with margins improving by 250 basis points to 21.8%, driven by cost management and logistics internalisation.

Operating profits rose 4% year-on-year.

The company's outlook for 2026 remains unchanged, with expectations of improved trading as weather disruptions ease and potential benefits from increased European steel production and German stimulus spending.

Management Comment

CEO Max Vermorken stated that:

"Our Q1 2026 financial performance evolved as we had hoped, with profitability in line with budget and ahead of last year.

Modest volume growth absent weather disruption signals that the business is well placed to take advantage of a European recovery.

Steel volumes were encouraging, as were the early signs of a housing recovery in our core markets.

Severe weather disruptions overshadowed these trends somewhat but could not hide the generally improved sentiment and market backdrop in the first quarter.

Presently we keep monitoring two key developments and their impact.

Firstly, the conflict in the Middle East and its potential impact on end demand, although our diversified end markets provide resilience against shocks, which the business has previously demonstrated.

Secondly, we are awaiting the impact of German stimulus materialising in the latter part of this year.

These head and tail winds are challenging to assess or predict.

We remain, however, optimistic about the year and the prospects of the SigmaRoc Group both for 2026 and beyond."

Broker Views

Analysts Adrian Kearsey and Kate Middleton, at Panmure Liberum, rate the group’s shares as a Buy, with a 216p Target Price.

For the current year to end-December, they see sales of £1,089m (£1,036m), with pre-tax profits of £172.4m (£154.1m), and earnings of 11.2p (10.5p) per share.

The brokers suggest that next year’s estimated sales of £1,141m, with profits increasing to £189.8m, with earnings of 12.4p per share.

The 2028-year estimates are for £1,206m sales, £206.2m profits and 13.4p per share in earnings.

At Zeus Capital, Andy Hanson and Charlie Cullen have a Buy note out on the shares, with just a 158p Target Price.

They noted that revenue was flat at £251.5m as the benefits of pricing and mix offset a 3% fall in total volumes caused by severe winter weather across Central and Northern Europe.

While the volume shortfall is weather-related and non-structural; absent the conditions, management reports underlying volume growth was modest and positive.

My View

I have admired the steady way that this impressive group has been put together.

It is now a very important player in its sector, and I believe that it is well-structured to be able to handle its ongoing growth.

This is a very solid business and its shares, now at 122p, offer substantial upside prospects.